A General Election will take place in the summer of 2010, and up until very recently the smart money has been on a Conservative victory. However, recent wobbles by the Tory leadership, followed by several polls suggesting that the result will be far closer than previously thought, has seen pundits predicting a ‘hung parliament’ as the more likely outcome. That, in my opinion, would be a disaster for the country. However, if David Cameron and Co continues to feel it necessary to comment on any and every issue whenever a microphone is pushed in their face then they could yet grasp defeat from the jaws of victory. The more they say, the less people like them.
Labour’s problem is that Gordon Brown is as popular as Jedward! However good a Chancellor he was; and indeed however well he has handled the recession, Brown just does not have the ‘X’ Factor that voters want nowadays.
The opposition’s biggest fear will be that Labour persuades Gordon to fall on his sword early in the New Year, and replaces him with a more likeable character – most likely the current Home Secretary Alan Johnson.
That ‘dream scenario’ for Labour strategists can only happen with Brown’s agreement. The one thing we know about the Prime Minister is that he is extremely stubborn. He waited a long time for the keys to number ten. I don’t think he will relinquish them unless and until the British electorate tell him its time to go.
The ‘hung parliament’ outcome is the Liberal Democrats ‘dream scenario’. Nick Clegg’s outfit can boast an articulate and impressive economic commentator in Vince Cable-though scrutiny of some of his past pronouncements reveals that he is not the financial genius some would have us believe.
For their co-operation in a newly elected hung parliament, the Lib Dems would likely demand of a Tory or Labour leader a committent to Proportional Representation. What else they stand for is difficult to know, given the major inconsistencies that exist across the range of policy areas that they have commented on.
The ‘nightmare scenario’ for all of us would be a repeat of this years election results that gave the BNP representation in the European Parliament. Surely, we will not elect this despicable body to the House of Commons.
Six months out from the election, one thing is clear. It’s not as cut and dried for the Tories as it looked following the political conference season in the autumn. Throw into the mix a probable Live TV Leaders debate, and it could be the closest General Election we have witnessed since 1974.