Posts Tagged ‘Gordon Brown’

THE LEADERS DEBATE

Friday, April 16th, 2010

It was history in the making stuff last night as, for the very first time in UK politics, the three principal party leaders participated in a head-to-head contest on a set that looked more ‘Going For Gold’ than ‘X Factor’. From an entertainment point of view, it would have been great to have Simon Cowell judging the performances of the three performers at the end of the night. As it was, well before the ninety minutes was up, many viewers will have opted for ‘Outnumbered’ on BBC One.

As for the debate itself, I have to say I found it rather sterile. The format was stiff, the lack of engagement with and from the audience gave the whole affair a somewhat plastic feel and the outcome was rather predictable.

As Peter Mandelson commented afterwards, it was David Cameron’s to lose and he lost it. Such were the expectations of the Tory Leader, he really had to wipe the floor with his opponents to impress, and in truth he failed to land a punch. Gordon Brown is not known for his charisma and ability to perform in front of the television cameras, and so Labour can and will claim that he did Okay. And, inevitably, Nick Clegg was a clear winner. No pressure, no expectation and little profile before the evening, he would have had to work hard not to come out on top. He was slick and able to get away with ‘a plague on both your houses’ approach and the Liberal Democrats will be delighted today.

But, with two more debates to come, Clegg will find it more difficult as the other two start to feel the need to target him a little more seriously in the weeks ahead. I don’t think he will find it as easy as he did last night. For Team Cameron, they will be wondering whether it really was such a good idea to sign up for these debates. When their man was twenty plus points clear in the polls at the turn of the year, and it looked like he could walk on water, it was probably a no-brainer. But, with the gap in the polls narrowing by the day, the hung parliament scenario has been looking the more likely outcome – and last night has only heightened that possibility.

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TEAM CAMERON ODDS ON TO WIN ELECTION RACE

Friday, April 9th, 2010

And they’re off! As we get set for the start of the big race in Liverpool tomorrow, Gordon Brown, David Cameron and Nick Clegg are busy trying to get you to back them.

Not since 1992 has the outcome of the General Election been so unpredictable. All the polls are suggesting a close run race, with most commentators saying it will be a photo finish, and a few reckoning that Team Cameron will win by a nose.

After thirteen years in power, Labour are definitely carrying a weighty handicap, and its jockey, Gordon Brown, is not the nimblest of riders that they may have wished for going into the big race. However, he and his party will be pushing experience as the big issue of the day, and hoping that this takes them over the finish line ahead of the other runners and riders.

The Tories message is clearly ‘change’. But in the midst of difficult economic times, will the electorate bet on a novice, or will they see it as too big a gamble to take?

Without a doubt, Nick Clegg, and his Liberal Democrats, is the outsider with long odds being offered for outright victory. Nevertheless, if it is as close a contest as many bookies are indicating, then he may be at the head of any stewards’ inquiry that takes place when all the votes have been counted by May 7th.

For my money, this one is still there for the Conservatives’ taking. Cameron will never have a better chance of becoming Prime Minister, and I’m betting on a Tory majority of between 20-30 seats. Still, it’s all to play for, and, as with the Grand National, there are plenty of hurdles to overcome between now and the end of a contest that is a marathon rather than a sprint.

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WILL THE TORIES THROW IT AWAY?

Friday, November 27th, 2009

A General Election will take place in the summer of 2010, and up until very recently the smart money has been on a Conservative victory. However, recent wobbles by the Tory leadership, followed by several polls suggesting that the result will be far closer than previously thought, has seen pundits predicting a ‘hung parliament’ as the more likely outcome. That, in my opinion, would be a disaster for the country. However, if David Cameron and Co continues to feel it necessary to comment on any and every issue whenever a microphone is pushed in their face then they could yet grasp defeat from the jaws of victory. The more they say, the less people like them.

Labour’s problem is that Gordon Brown is as popular as Jedward! However good a Chancellor he was; and indeed however well he has handled the recession, Brown just does not have the ‘X’ Factor that voters want nowadays.

The opposition’s biggest fear will be that Labour persuades Gordon to fall on his sword early in the New Year, and replaces him with a more likeable character – most likely the current Home Secretary Alan Johnson.

That ‘dream scenario’ for Labour strategists can only happen with Brown’s agreement. The one thing we know about the Prime Minister is that he is extremely stubborn. He waited a long time for the keys to number ten. I don’t think he will relinquish them unless and until the British electorate tell him its time to go.

The ‘hung parliament’ outcome is the Liberal Democrats ‘dream scenario’. Nick Clegg’s outfit can boast an articulate and impressive economic commentator in Vince Cable-though scrutiny of some of his past pronouncements reveals that he is not the financial genius some would have us believe.

For their co-operation in a newly elected hung parliament, the Lib Dems would likely demand of a Tory or Labour leader a committent to Proportional Representation. What else they stand for is difficult to know, given the major inconsistencies that exist across the range of policy areas that they have commented on.

The ‘nightmare scenario’ for all of us would be a repeat of this years election results that gave the BNP representation in the European Parliament. Surely, we will not elect this despicable body to the House of Commons.

Six months out from the election, one thing is clear. It’s not as cut and dried for the Tories as it looked following the political conference season in the autumn. Throw into the mix a probable Live TV Leaders debate, and it could be the closest General Election we have witnessed since 1974.

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TORIES FAIL TO MAKE REAL BREAKTHROUGH

Friday, June 12th, 2009

David Cameron was in jubilant mood when he visited his Tory troops in Preston last week, who were celebrating taking control of Lancashire County Council for the first time in almost thirty years.

However, BNP success, on the local and European stage, alongside Labour’s week of turmoil, somewhat masked The Conservative Party’s relatively poor electoral performance.

Given the Governments current crisis, and where we are in the parliamentary cycle, Team Cameron will be concerned that they were unable to poll more than 28 per cent of the national vote.

At this stage of the game, they need to be pulling in 40 per cent to guarantee an election win in 2010.

Of course Tory support was affected by the MP’s expenses scandal. But, so too was Labour’s.

Certainly, the poor Conservative showing did not go unnoticed by backbench Labour MP’s who, on the Monday after the election results had been revealed, were pledging their loyalty to Gordon Brown with renewed hope that they may, after all, have a fighting chance of holding onto their seats if a General Election can be delayed until next spring.

And the Conservatives took another hit this week, when Shadow Health Minister Andrew Lansley let slip that they planned public spending cuts of ten per cent, once again fuelling the argument that the more the Tories talk policy, the less attractive a proposition they become.
The election results, and the ministerial meltdown that surrounded the party, ought to have meant that Labour was being read its last rites by now. However, a week is a long time in politics, and the past seven days have not been great for David Cameron.

Brown, and Labour, live to fight another day.

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